Josh Appelbaum examines where smart money is leaning for Western Kentucky-Jacksonville State, Tulane-Army and UNLV-Boise State.
Week 15 of the College Football season kicks off tonight with a trio of Conference Championship games. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes.
7 p.m. ET: Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State (-4.5, 58.5)
This is the Conference USA championship. These two teams are both 8-4 and just played each other last week, with Western Kentucky taking down Jacksonville State 19-17 and covering as 1-point home favorites. The win snapped a two-game losing skid for Western Kentucky while the loss ended an eight-game winning streak for Jacksonville State. This line opened with Jacksonville State listed as a 3-point home favorite. We’ve seen notable line movement in favor of Jacksonville State, as the Gamecocks were steamed up from -3 to -5. That’s when we saw some buyback on Western Kentucky at an inflated price, dropping the line from 5 back down to 4.5. Some shops are even down to 4 on gameday. Essentially, late movement is breaking back toward Western Kentucky plus the points. The public is leaning toward laying the points with the home team, as Jacksonville State is receiving 55% of spread bets at DraftKings and 58% of spread bets at Circa Sports. On the flip side, this provides contrarian value for those looking to take the points with the road dog, as the Hilltoppers are receiving less than half the tickets in a heavily bet game on CBSSN. At DraftKings, Western Kentucky is receiving 45% of spread bets but 52% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Western Kentucky has value as a conference dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points. The Hilltoppers also have the better defense, only giving up 22.2 PPG while the Gamecocks are allowing 27 PPG. One variable to monitor here is the health (and effectiveness) of Jacksonville QB Tyler Huff, who left last week’s game with a leg injury and is likely to play but could possibly be limited.
8 p.m. ET: Tulane (-4.5, 45.5) at Army
This is the American Athletic Conference championship. Tulane (9-3) just saw their eight-game win streak come to an end, falling to Memphis 34-24 and losing outright as 13-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Army (10-1, ranked 24th) just brushed aside UTSA 29-24 but failed to cover as 6.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Tulane listed as a 4-point road favorite. The public is roughly split down the middle and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them. However, despite this even bet split we’ve seen Tulane creep up from -4 to -4.5. Some shops even reached as high as Tulane -6 before some Army buyback dropped the number back down. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are split because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the price. So, based upon the line move we can infer that the respected smart money is leaning toward laying the points with Tulane. Tulane is only receiving 52% of spread bets but 73% of spread dollars at DraftKings, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy. At Circa, Tulane is taking in 68% of spread bets and 76% of spread dollars, another sharp split. Tulane has a two-day rest advantage, having last played on November 28th while Army last played on November 30th. Tulane has a huge edge offensively, averaging 39 PPG compared to Army averaging just 30 PPG. Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 48.5 to 45.5. The under is only taking in 32% of bets but 48% of dollars at DraftKings. The forecast calls for mid 20s with cloudy skies and 15 MPH winds (with gusts up to 30 MPH) at West Point.
8 p.m. ET: UNLV at Boise State (-4.5, 57.5)
This is the Mountain West Conference championship. UNLV (10-2, ranked 20th) has won four straight and just brushed aside Nevada 38-14, covering as 17.5-point home favorites. Similarly, Boise State (11-1, ranked 10th) has won ten straight and just dismissed Oregon State 34-18 but failed to cover as 18-point home favorites. This line opened with Boise State listed as a 5-point home favorite. The public is happy to lay the points with Boise State on the blue turf. However, despite receiving 64% of spread bets at DraftKings we’ve seen Boise State fall from -5 to -4.5. Several shops fell as low as -3.5 at times throughout the week. This signals sharp reverse line movement on UNLV plus the points, as the line has moved in their favor despite being the unpopular play. UNLV is the top contrarian play of the night, receiving only 36% of spread bets in a heavily bet primetime game on FOX. At DraftKings, UNLV is taking in 36% of spread bets but 54% of spread dollars. At Circa, UNLV is taking in 49% of spread bets but 68% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the Rebels. These teams met in late October, with Boise State winning 29-24 at UNLV. What’s notable is that UNLV was a 4.5-point home dog in that game. Now, as they travel to Boise State they are still a 4.5-point dog. In other words, we are looking at the same spread despite UNLV going on the road. Normally, a team will receive a few extra points for home field advantage, so if UNLV was +4.5 at home against Boise State you might expect them to be +5.5 or +6.5 on the road at Boise State. Reading between the lines, this means the oddsmakers are more bullish on UNLV this time around. Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 59.5 to 57.5. The under is receiving 47% of bets but 58% of dollars.
Week 15 of the College Football season kicks off tonight with a trio of Conference Championship games. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes.
7 p.m. ET: Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State (-4.5, 58.5)
This is the Conference USA championship. These two teams are both 8-4 and just played each other last week, with Western Kentucky taking down Jacksonville State 19-17 and covering as 1-point home favorites. The win snapped a two-game losing skid for Western Kentucky while the loss ended an eight-game winning streak for Jacksonville State. This line opened with Jacksonville State listed as a 3-point home favorite. We’ve seen notable line movement in favor of Jacksonville State, as the Gamecocks were steamed up from -3 to -5. That’s when we saw some buyback on Western Kentucky at an inflated price, dropping the line from 5 back down to 4.5. Some shops are even down to 4 on gameday. Essentially, late movement is breaking back toward Western Kentucky plus the points. The public is leaning toward laying the points with the home team, as Jacksonville State is receiving 55% of spread bets at DraftKings and 58% of spread bets at Circa Sports. On the flip side, this provides contrarian value for those looking to take the points with the road dog, as the Hilltoppers are receiving less than half the tickets in a heavily bet game on CBSSN. At DraftKings, Western Kentucky is receiving 45% of spread bets but 52% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Western Kentucky has value as a conference dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points. The Hilltoppers also have the better defense, only giving up 22.2 PPG while the Gamecocks are allowing 27 PPG. One variable to monitor here is the health (and effectiveness) of Jacksonville QB Tyler Huff, who left last week’s game with a leg injury and is likely to play but could possibly be limited.
8 p.m. ET: Tulane (-4.5, 45.5) at Army
This is the American Athletic Conference championship. Tulane (9-3) just saw their eight-game win streak come to an end, falling to Memphis 34-24 and losing outright as 13-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Army (10-1, ranked 24th) just brushed aside UTSA 29-24 but failed to cover as 6.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Tulane listed as a 4-point road favorite. The public is roughly split down the middle and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them. However, despite this even bet split we’ve seen Tulane creep up from -4 to -4.5. Some shops even reached as high as Tulane -6 before some Army buyback dropped the number back down. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are split because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the price. So, based upon the line move we can infer that the respected smart money is leaning toward laying the points with Tulane. Tulane is only receiving 52% of spread bets but 73% of spread dollars at DraftKings, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy. At Circa, Tulane is taking in 68% of spread bets and 76% of spread dollars, another sharp split. Tulane has a two-day rest advantage, having last played on November 28th while Army last played on November 30th. Tulane has a huge edge offensively, averaging 39 PPG compared to Army averaging just 30 PPG. Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 48.5 to 45.5. The under is only taking in 32% of bets but 48% of dollars at DraftKings. The forecast calls for mid 20s with cloudy skies and 15 MPH winds (with gusts up to 30 MPH) at West Point.
8 p.m. ET: UNLV at Boise State (-4.5, 57.5)
This is the Mountain West Conference championship. UNLV (10-2, ranked 20th) has won four straight and just brushed aside Nevada 38-14, covering as 17.5-point home favorites. Similarly, Boise State (11-1, ranked 10th) has won ten straight and just dismissed Oregon State 34-18 but failed to cover as 18-point home favorites. This line opened with Boise State listed as a 5-point home favorite. The public is happy to lay the points with Boise State on the blue turf. However, despite receiving 64% of spread bets at DraftKings we’ve seen Boise State fall from -5 to -4.5. Several shops fell as low as -3.5 at times throughout the week. This signals sharp reverse line movement on UNLV plus the points, as the line has moved in their favor despite being the unpopular play. UNLV is the top contrarian play of the night, receiving only 36% of spread bets in a heavily bet primetime game on FOX. At DraftKings, UNLV is taking in 36% of spread bets but 54% of spread dollars. At Circa, UNLV is taking in 49% of spread bets but 68% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the Rebels. These teams met in late October, with Boise State winning 29-24 at UNLV. What’s notable is that UNLV was a 4.5-point home dog in that game. Now, as they travel to Boise State they are still a 4.5-point dog. In other words, we are looking at the same spread despite UNLV going on the road. Normally, a team will receive a few extra points for home field advantage, so if UNLV was +4.5 at home against Boise State you might expect them to be +5.5 or +6.5 on the road at Boise State. Reading between the lines, this means the oddsmakers are more bullish on UNLV this time around. Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 59.5 to 57.5. The under is receiving 47% of bets but 58% of dollars.
